Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.626124 6.700707 7.889125 9.295940 10.910559 12.700330 14.828785
2025-02-16 3.681942 5.024376 6.680047 8.849016 11.589675 14.909904 19.205520
2025-02-23 2.522137 3.894429 5.759233 8.424584 12.073161 16.822225 23.387462
2025-03-02 1.777703 3.078944 5.010445 7.992234 12.364897 18.409684 27.233505
2025-03-09 1.359346 2.611221 4.620522 7.935496 13.086874 20.570655 31.987388
2025-03-16 1.040712 2.209572 4.230172 7.775654 13.583036 22.401874 36.386642
2025-03-23 0.896350 2.070907 4.230510 8.214768 15.021277 25.724023 43.215109
2025-03-30 0.738420 1.861190 4.058821 8.320782 15.908085 28.247522 49.002642
2025-04-06 0.604230 1.661094 3.860736 8.336904 16.623455 30.532542 54.561322
2025-04-13 0.494019 1.480884 3.662389 8.312419 17.246665 32.694057 60.051437
2025-04-20 0.457937 1.466911 3.801230 8.951850 19.121949 37.089670 69.486506
2025-04-27 0.399673 1.379411 3.763561 9.226741 20.337614 40.427022 77.348218
2025-05-04 0.350325 1.304970 3.749524 9.565632 21.743020 44.262861 86.423101
2025-05-11 0.287833 1.171976 3.572416 9.531491 22.419852 46.856750 93.544854
2025-05-18 0.225118 1.013135 3.295475 9.229069 22.516750 48.386857 98.881872
2025-05-25 0.171383 0.859392 2.993244 8.813630 22.321316 49.336000 103.212826
2025-06-01 0.140304 0.773407 2.855765 8.770545 22.911452 51.826446 110.519094
2025-06-08 0.111782 0.682653 2.681121 8.603051 23.202203 53.738942 116.844357
2025-06-15 0.102796 0.672598 2.751359 9.083879 25.008037 58.804587 129.450016
2025-06-22 0.087507 0.625059 2.690200 9.200240 25.974162 62.211493 139.017540
2025-06-29 0.072949 0.572474 2.598889 9.218121 26.705965 65.176707 147.874823
2025-07-06 0.060186 0.521073 2.497941 9.191567 27.324578 67.939143 156.470658
2025-07-13 0.058501 0.534125 2.635720 9.887765 29.792741 74.795765 173.604231